Notes on the Haefele-Schikorr Model of Reactor Strategies

These calculations are intended as a highly aggregated description of the energy sector -- with a time horizon extending well into the 21st century. The geographical scope is that of a self-contained "model society" with a technology, income and population similar to that of the U.S. or Western Europe. The focus is upon the transition to zero population growth and zero per capita increase in the use of energy

Global Scenarios for Carbon Dioxide Emissions

The paper describes global scenarios for carbon dioxide emissions. They are based on the global scenarios formulated with the Global 2100 model and described in the book "Buying Greenhouse Insurance" by Manne and Richels. The input data used by Manne and Richels were modified to reflect scenario results of individual countries that contributed to the CHALLENGE network. Within CHALLENGE, researchers explore globally efficient measures to reduce the risk of adverse climate change. The approach used by the participants in these activities is to formulate reference scenarios for future carbon emissions. Any carbon mitigation is then measured relative to the reference case. With Global 2100, it is possible to quantify the effects of a hypothetical carbon tax on energy demand and supply. In the formulation of the model, this is equivalent to introducing all mitigation measures of which the specific costs are less than the tax. The main conclusion of the paper is that with costs of up to US$ 200 per ton of carbon, global energy related carbon dioxide emissions could be stabilized between 1990 and 2020

Equilibrium and Linear Complementarity - An Economy with Institutional Constraints on Prices

In the theory of perfect competition, it is supposed that there are no institutional restrictions upon prices. Much the same assumption is built into mathematical programming models. The presence of such constraints implies, for example, that the market price and the marginal productivity (shadow price) of the factors of production will not necessarily coincide. Unless such constraints are introduced, models cannot explain the simultaneous existence of excess supply of an item and yet a positive market price. If there is a gap between market and shadow prices, this raises a question. By what set of prices are the economic agents' actions guided? In this paper, we assume that one sector of the economy, the private sector, is guided by market prices. The other, the public sector, is guided by shadow prices. With conventional optimization techniques, it is awkward -- and sometimes impossible -- to handle this type of problem. Here we shall show that some of these features can be introduced through linear complementarity. This approach permits us to introduce institutional constraints upon prices -- in addition to the technological constraints that are normally generated through the coefficients of each activity in a linear programming model

Learn-by-doing and Carbon Dioxide Abatement [Revised March 2002]

There are inherent difficulties in solving LBD(learn-by-doing) models. Basic to such models is the idea that the accumulation of experience leads to a lowering of costs. This paper is intended to explore some of the algorithmic issues in LBD modeling for carbon dioxide abatement. When using a standard algorithm for nonlinear programming, there is no guarantee that a local LBD optimum will also be a global optimum. Fortunately, despite the absence of guarantees, there is a good chance that one of the standard algorithms will produce a global optimum for models of this type. Moreover, there is a new procedure named BARON. In the case of small models, a global optimum can be recognized and guaranteed through BARON. Eventually, it should be possible for BARON or a similar approach to be extended top large-scale LBD models for climate change. Meanwhile, in order to check for local optima, the most practical course is to apply several different nonlinear programming algorithms - and several different starting solutions with each of them

International Energy Workshop: A Progress Report

The International Energy Workshop (IEW) is a network of analysts concerned with international energy issues. It aims to compare long-term energy projections and to understand the reasons for diverging views. The IEW conducts iterative polling on key energy issues and publishes the results of these polls semiannually. The poll results are discussed at annual meetings, alternative between Europe and North America. Participation in the IEW is informal and is open to anyone supporting the goals of the Workshop. This report describes the status and progress of the IEW in mid-1987. It also summarizes the discussions from the meeting held at IIASA in June 1987

International Energy Workshop - A Summary of the 1983 Poll Responses

The International Energy Workshop (IEW) is an expanding network of analysts concerned with international energy issues. Jointly created in 1981 by IIASA and Stanford University, the IEW aims to compare published energy projections and to understand the reasons for their divergence. The Workshop process includes iterative polling of projections of crude oil prices, economic growth, primary energy consumption and production, and energy trade. Successive meetings assess the implications of the comparative projections in the presence of most of the poll respondents. This report describes the results of the 1983 IEW poll, which served as background to the second meeting of the IEW held at IIASA in June 1983